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George Friedman about Europe & Germany. More wishful thinking than serious geopolitical strategy!

CONTENT

  1. George Friedman about Europe & Germany
  2. Wrong conclusions of Friedman!
  3. Connected articles


1. George Friedman about Europe & Germany

It is official, the USA is conducting a hybrid war against Germany. We have heard from George Friedman and other strategists, that the USA wants to cut the connection between Russia and Germany and that industry should be moved from Germany to Poland and the Baltic states.

George Friedman wrote a book in 2008 and "predicted" 
  • the dissolution of Russian Federation in 2020,
  • return of the Greek Drachme,
  • Russia as already bankrupt like at Yelzin stance,
  • oil prices would remain perpetually low,
  • Russia would not survive,
  • Poland and Turkey would play a much more greater role in affairs of Europe,
and has failed.

He also wrote more wishful thinking of US strategists like himself that ...
  • European Union is an unsustainable entity.
  • Japan would be much more powerful than China.
  • China would have over 1 billion poor people.


George Friedman, "Europe: Destined for Conflict?"
Feb 4, 2015


00:09:15
"Is it really over in Europe?
Is the slaughter that started in 1914 and ended in 1945 or began 2000 years ago with the Romans and never ended?
Is it over? That question is crucial, because that is what the EU promised. It promised peace and prosperity."

00:21:39
"On August 8th, 2008, Russia invaded Georgia. This extremely important."

00:33:08
"Germany has 5% unemployment, France is now, I think, 12%, but southern Europe is in depression. It's unemployment rate is the same as US unemployment rate was during the Great Depression. It is not a recession! It is a depression! 

The difference between recession and depression is very simple. In a recession You are in a cyclical process where marginal businesses are culled. In a depression very healthy businesses can't function. As result if You do Qualitative Easing - I love that name for printing money. It is so cool. :-). 

If You print money to stimulate the economy, You will find that the businesses You need to take this money to turn into jobs, aren't there. This is why FDR (FD Roosevelt) never solved the American depression through his policies. It took World War II to do it! 

You can't stimulate an economy, that has been structurally damaged!

Southern Europe is now in a position that for a generation at least, it will not recover! This is not a marginal event within a business cycle. This is not a relatively intense business downturn. This is a social catastrophe!"

00:34:35
"Now we have to consider, what kind of social catastrophe it is for a moment.

When the poor get poorer, they understand the grammar of poverty. It has not changed their life, it has made it harder. The people who have been devastated in Europe, southern Europe, by austerity are government workers."

00:36:46
"One of the things Americans don't understand and the European financial lead hasn't the clue about is the social catastrophe taking place in Europe. They are so obsessed with the health of the banks, that they assume that if the banks are functional and bonds are being repaid, they'r safe. But they are not! Because the biggest danger, that any financial magnet has, is a 75 cent bullet. And by that I mean in the history of Europe such problems are traditionally solved in a certain way, either by coercing the financial classes, liquidating the financial classes, as was done in Russia, coercing them, making deals with them, but certainly changing the way that they operate.

In reading the Financial Times, which I do instead of the comics, it has been only a year since they have recognized, that something bad is happening. They have not yet connected the dots to what it is. What it is, is a massive, intelligent, educated and embittered class, who sees no hope in the current system and who just elected a left wing government, but what is also happening in Europe is the re-emergence of Nationalism."

I got the next quotes of the same speech from following site, where they are also translated into Russian.
Стратфор "картографирует" военное столкновение Германии и России - 5
April 8th, 2015
https://stanislav-05.livejournal.com/1440202.html

00:53:49
"So, the primordial interest of the United States over which for centuries we have fought wars, the first, second and cold war has been the relationship between Germany and Russia. Because united they are the only force that could threaten us, and to make sure that that doesn’t happen.

00:46:04
What You do, if you are an Ukrainian, is essentially to reach out to the only country that will help you, which is the United States. Last week, about ten days ago, General Hodges, commander of the ‘US army Europe’ visited Ukraine, he announced that US trainers would now be officially coming, not just unofficially coming. He actually pinned medals on Ukrainian fighters, which by protocol of the military actually is not the way, foreigners don’t get to pin on medals, but he did. Showing that this was his army, he then left and in the Baltics announced that the United States would be prepositioning: armour, artillery, and other equipment in the Baltic’s, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria, which is a very interesting point. 

So the United States, and now yesterday the United States announced that it will be sending weapons. Tonight of course they denied it, but they are, weapons will go. In all of this the United States has acted outside of the context of NATO. Because NATO has to have a hundred percent vote and anyone country can veto anything. And the Turks will veto it just for ‘giggles’. 

The point is that the United States is prepared to create a ‘cordon Sanitaire’ around Russia, and Russia knows it, Russia believes that the United States intends to break the Russian Federation. I think that as Peter Lory put it, we don’t want to kill you, we just want to sort of hurt you a little bit“. Either way, we are back at the old game, and if you go ask a Pole or a Hungarian or a Romanian, they live in a totally different universe from a German, and they live in a totally different universe from a Spaniard. So there is no commonality in Europe. But if I were Ukrainian, I would do exactly what they are doing, try to draw the Americans in."


00:48:55
"I said in the book, that the Ukrainian crisis will blow about 2015. I also said, I expected Russia to begin disintegration around 2020. I may have given them too much time. Under the current circumstances, the framework of Russia is that the central government collects the money and gives the oblasts and towns money.

Under the current circumstances I am not sure how much money they can give. We are back at Yelzin's stance. Now the thing to remember is, in the long run, next 3 or 4 years, the Russians may be toast, but they become more dangerous the poorer they are and they fight better. 

As a Russian told me: 'You wouldn't have predicted that we could beat the Wehrmacht, from the state of our economy, but we did. You Americans think always of Yourself. We don't work that way. We can handle this.' 

I don't think they can handle the full pain that's coming on them, because I think that oil prices are perpetually going to .. as a new normal, but that is another story. However, looking at the Russians, I don't think they can survive."

00:59:11
"The United States has a fundamental interest, it controls all the oceans of the world, no power has ever done that. Because of that, we get to invade people and they don’t get to invade us, that is a very nice thing.

Maintaining control of the sea and control of space is the foundation of our power. The best way to defeat an enemy fleet is to not let it be built. The way the British managed to make certain that no European power could built a fleet is to make sure that the Europeans were at each others throats. 

The policy that I would recommend is the one that Ronald Reagan adopted toward Iran and Iraq. He funded both sides, so they would fight each other and not fight us. This was cynical, it was certainly not moral, it worked.

And this is the point: the United States cannot occupy Eurasia, the moment the first boots hits the ground, the demographic differential is that we are totally outnumbered. We can defeat an army, we cannot occupy Iraq, the idea that 130.000 men would occupy a country of 25 million. Well the ratio in New York of cops to citizens was greater than we had deployed in Iraq. So, we don’t have the ability to go across, but we do have the ability to first: support various contending powers so they are concentrated on themselves with political support, some economic support, military support, advisers and in extremist do what we did in Japan, I mean in Vietnam, in Iraq and in Afghanistan. With spoiling attacks, the spoiling attack is not intended to defeat the enemy, it is intended to throw them of balance. What we did in each of these wars, in Afghanistan for example we threw Al Qaida of balance.

The problem we have since we are young and stupid is that having thrown them of balance instead of saying ‘ok, job well done, let’s go home’. We said ‘well that was easy, why don’t we build a democracy here’. This was the moment of dementia that came in.

The answer therefore is, the United States cannot constantly be intervening throughout Eurasia. It must be selectively intervening and very rarely, that is the extreme moment, we cannot as the first step send American troops. And when we send American troops, we have to truly understand what the mission is, limit to that and not to develop all sorts of psychotic fantasies.

So hopefully we have learned that this time, it takes a while for kids to learn lessons. But I think you are absolutely right, we cannot as an empire do that. 

Britain didn’t occupy India, it took various Indian states and turned them against each other and provided some British officers for an Indian army. The Romans did not sent vast armies out there, it placed kings. Various kings were created under the emperor and those kings were responsible for maintaining the peace, Pontius Pilate was one example.

So empires that are directly governed by the empire like the Nazi Empire failed. No one has that much power. You have to have a level of cleverness. However, our problem is not yet that, it is actually admitting that we have an empire. So we haven’t even gotten to that point were we don’t think that we can go home and it will be over and done. So we are not even ready for chapter three of the book."

01:08:40
"The question on the table for the Russians is will they retain a buffer zone that is at least neutral or will the West penetrate so far in the Ukraine that they are 70 miles away from Stalingrad and 300 miles away from Moscow.

For Russia, the status of Ukraine is an existential threat, and the Russians cannot let go. For the United States, in the event that Russia holds on to the Ukraine, were will it stop? Therefore it is not an accident that General Hodges, who is been appointed to be blamed for all of this, is talking about prepositioning troops in Romania, Bulgaria, Poland and the Baltic’s. This is the Intermarium, from the Black Sea to the Baltic, that Pilsudski dreamed of. This is the solution for the United States.

The issue to which we don’t have the answer is "What will Germany do?". The real wild card in Europe is that as the United States builds its cordon sanitaire, not in Ukraine, but to the west, and the Russians try to figure out how to leverage the Ukrainians outwe don’t know the German position. Germany is in a very peculiar position, it’s former Chancellor Gerhard Schroder is on the board of Gazprom, they have a very complex relationship with the Russians. 

The Germans themselves don’t know what to do, they must export, the Russians can’t take up the export. On the other hand, if they lose the free trade zone, they need to build something different. 

For the United States, the primordial fear is Russian capital, Russian technology, I mean German technology and German capital, Russian natural resources and Russian manpower as the only combination that has for centuries scared the hell out of the United States. So how does this play out?

Well, the USA has already put it’s cards on the table. It is the line from the Baltic’s to the Black Sea. For the Russians, their cards have always been on the table, they must have at least a neutral Ukraine, not a pro-western Ukraine. Belarus is another question.

Now, whoever can tell me what the Germans are going to do is going to tell me about the next 20 years of history. But unfortunately the Germans haven’t made up their mind. And this is the problem of Germany always, enormously economically powerful, geopolitical very fragile and never quite knowing how to reconcile the two.

Ever since 1871, this has been the German question, the question of Europe. Think about the German question, because now it is coming up again, that is the next question that we have to address, and we don’t know how to address it, we don’t know what they are going to do.?"


2. Wrong conclusions of Friedman!

George Friedman is trying to sound smart, but makes huge mistakes by trying to sell his strategy to the US political establishment and the public. He may be right in assuming that the US strategy of instigating wars between proxy states and Russia is the only way to challenge Russia. After being defeated in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq, USA will never be able to directly attack Russia, as the answer may be devastating for the USA.

However, also the expectation of the states, he would like to use as proxy warriors are totally different from his wishful thinking. The three Baltic states, Poland don't intend to fight for US interests. In contrast they expect USA to fight against Russia without being harmed by Russian counter attacks.

Turkey has enough experience from the WWI, not to challenge Russia militarily and not to damage any bilateral or international contract with Russia. Rather Turkey feels to be more threatened by the military buildup of USA on Greek mainland and Aegean islands. Under this circumstances Russia is the natural economic and military ally of Turkey. Therefore it is not a coincidence that Turkey has bought the Russian S400 air defense system and applied for membership in the Chinese and Russian lead Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Turkey Makes It Official With SCO
Joshua Kucera Apr 28, 2013
https://eurasianet.org/turkey-makes-it-official-with-sco

"Turkey has formally become a "dialogue partner" of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a step with unclear practical consequences but substantial symbolic import. Turkey is the first NATO member with any sort of formal relationship with the SCO, which is often represented as an Eastern "anti-NATO." All the cliches about Turkey being "caught between East and West" -- here they are, codified in agreements with political-military blocs."


3. Connected articles

USA is at war against Germany! RAND report declares "“Weakening Germany, strengthening the US” by the war on Ukraine!

US imperial military campaign against Russia is inevitable! Europe serves as a deployment and front area and source of cannon fodder!

Poroshenko: Minsk deal was used to buy time! - Alexey Miller: Dominance of Dollar is going away! - Van Creveld: Russia is Winning! - Lech Walesa: Reduce Russian population!


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